US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as Wall Street prepared for a rare double test: Nvidia’s quarterly results and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
Dow futures hovered around flat, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped about 0.1% and 0.25%.
Nvidia edged higher before the bell after snapping a seven-session losing streak on Tuesday.
Oil’s sharp retreat and lower Treasury yields have eased some pressure on growth stocks, but investors remain reluctant to take large positions before July PCE inflation at 8:30 am ET and Nvidia’s results after the close.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Nvidia has to do more than beat
Nvidia is expected to report quarterly revenue of roughly $92 billion to $93 billion, nearly double the year-earlier level, with adjusted earnings seen around $2.09 a share.
Those forecasts underline the strength of AI demand but also explain why expectations are unusually demanding.
Deutsche Bank strategist Peter Sidorov noted in MarketWatch that Nvidia’s earnings surprises have become less dramatic than during 2023 and 2024.
That makes guidance, margins and evidence of sustained hyperscaler spending at least as important as the headline numbers.
2. PCE could move rates before Nvidia moves stocks
July PCE inflation arrives at 8:30 am ET. Economists surveyed by Barron’s expect headline prices to rise 0.1% from June and 3.6% from a year earlier.
Core inflation is seen increasing 0.2% monthly and 3.2% annually.
A softer print would strengthen the case for the Fed to hold rates in September. A hotter reading could revive hike expectations and push Treasury yields higher.
The second estimate of second-quarter GDP is also due, with growth expected to be revised to 1.7% from 1.5%.
3. Intuit highlights the other side of the AI trade
Intuit sank more than 11% pre-market after forecasting slower sales growth, despite beating quarterly estimates. Zoom dropped more than 5% after its guidance disappointed.
The moves highlight an uncomfortable divide.
Semiconductor companies have captured much of the upside from AI infrastructure spending, while traditional software groups face questions over disruption, pricing power and whether AI products can generate enough incremental revenue.
4. Falling oil takes some heat out of yields
Brent crude slid towards $86 a barrel and WTI towards $80 after Iran and Oman advanced discussions over a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.
Lower energy prices reduce one of the most immediate inflation threats.
The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.64%, with the 30-year near 5.18%. Both remain high enough to keep technology valuations sensitive to any renewed bond selloff.
5. Jackson Hole remains the final hurdle
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his Jackson Hole keynote at 10 am ET on Friday, giving investors another major policy test after PCE and Nvidia.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told MarketWatch that PCE, Nvidia and Warsh are the three hurdles the S&P 500 must clear for another push higher.
He expects cooling inflation, continued AI strength and a supportive Fed message to preserve the bullish trend.
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