SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) faces another major supply test on Thursday, but investors are already looking beyond the August lockup to a September catalyst.
Another 319 million shares are expected to become eligible for trading on August 20, following the release of 912 million shares on August 6.
Yet the first unlock failed to trigger the selloff many investors feared.
SpaceX rose 6.1% that day and nearly 16% in the following session, while shares have risen about 35% since the restrictions lifted.
The Nasdaq-100’s September quarterly rebalance is scheduled to take effect before trading begins on September 21.
A bigger float could trigger more Nasdaq buying
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. JPMorgan estimated at the time that inclusion could attract roughly $4.3 billion in passive inflows from funds tracking the benchmark.
“Clearly, there’s a lot of demand; that’s why they fast-tracked the integration into the index,” Morningstar strategist Michael Field told Reuters. He also warned that Morningstar considered the shares overvalued.
The next question is whether SpaceX’s growing public float could increase its index representation.
Investor Tangerine Tan Capital calculates that SpaceX currently carries about a 1.16% Nasdaq-100 weight, well below the 4% to 5% allocation he believes its market value could justify without the float constraint.
As more insider shares become tradable, the investor expects index funds to increase their holdings around future rebalances.
“I am expecting a price increase around the time of the rebalancing,” Tangerine Tan Capital wrote.
August 20 will test whether buyers can absorb supply
The September thesis first has to survive Thursday.
About 319 million additional shares become eligible for trading, increasing the pool available to insiders and early investors.
Eligibility does not mean those holders will sell, but it creates another potential source of supply.
Research analyst Ed Elson expects “a lot of selling pressure” as early backers gain opportunities to monetise years of gains.
The August 6 unlock offered an encouraging precedent. More than 900 million shares became eligible, but SpaceX instead climbed 6.1% to $114.92. Elson suggested short sellers closing positions may have helped absorb the new supply.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was also bullish around that event. The Associated Press reported that Jonas viewed the unlock as a buying opportunity and believed SpaceX could reach $300 by mid-2027.
Index demand does not settle the valuation argument
Any additional passive buying would not automatically make SpaceX fundamentally cheap.
The stock has remained highly volatile since its $135 IPO, climbing as high as $225.64 before falling below the offer price and subsequently recovering.
NYU professor and investor Scott Galloway told Business Insider this week that SpaceX remained “crazy overvalued,” arguing that its limited initial public float and rapid Nasdaq-100 inclusion had created unusually strong demand.
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