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Why Tesla stock is outperforming the tech majors today

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Shares of Tesla rose about 1.3% on Thursday to $377.56, supported by a production milestone for its long-awaited electric truck, even as broader markets also advanced.

The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%.

The move stood in sharp contrast to the bruising suffered by several of its large-cap technology peers.

Nvidia slid more than 3% as markets weighed the risk that Big Tech’s custom chip ambitions could gradually erode demand for third-party GPUs.

Meta tumbled sharply — closer to 10% — after its earnings call, with investors apparently unconvinced that the spending surge would translate into near-term returns.

Microsoft, too, retreated roughly 5% following its results, even as analysts lifted their price targets on the back of strong cloud and AI revenue growth.

Against that backdrop, Tesla’s advance made it one of the few high-profile names in the technology and innovation space to finish the session in the green

Semi production milestone

The move in Tesla’s stock followed confirmation that the first Tesla Semi truck rolled off the company’s high-volume production line on Wednesday.

“First Semi off high volume line,” Tesla said in a post on social media platform X.

The Semi, first unveiled in 2017, is an all-electric truck designed for long-haul freight.

According to Tesla, the long-range version can travel approximately 500 miles on a single charge.

The company has committed to ramping production this year, with longer-term ambitions to produce up to 50,000 units annually.

That would represent a meaningful share of the roughly 500,000 semi-trucks sold each year across the US and Europe.

Economics linked to energy prices

The business case for the Tesla Semi is closely tied to fuel costs.

Benchmark crude oil prices were around $116 per barrel early Thursday, up significantly from about $70 prior to the onset of the Iran conflict.

Higher fuel prices increase operating costs for traditional diesel trucks, potentially improving the relative economics of electric alternatives.

Diesel expenses for a conventional truck can reach around $100,000 annually, while electricity could reduce those costs by 40% to 70%, depending on usage and infrastructure.

The Semi is expected to cost around $290,000, a premium compared to traditional trucks, though not outside the range for commercial fleets considering long-term savings.

However, the vehicle’s range and reliance on charging infrastructure may limit its applicability across certain routes and markets.

Rising capex to support growth

In January, Tesla said it planned to more than double its capital expenditure this year to over $20 billion.

The investments are focused on expanding capacity across several areas, including autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, battery production, and lithium supply.

These investments reflect a shift toward what the company has described as “physical AI,” encompassing autonomous driving and robotics.

AI remains central to valuation

Despite the positive reaction to the Semi milestone, Tesla’s stock has remained under pressure in recent months, down about 14% year-to-date and more than 2% lower following its March-quarter results.

Investor attention has increasingly shifted toward the company’s progress in artificial intelligence initiatives, particularly its robotaxi service and humanoid robot program.

Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, but expansion to additional cities has been slower than expected.

This has raised concerns about the timeline for scaling the business and generating meaningful revenue.

While the Semi milestone marks incremental progress in Tesla’s diversification beyond passenger vehicles, the broader investment case remains tied to its ability to deliver on its AI ambitions.

The company’s ability to scale both its commercial vehicle production and its autonomous technology platforms will be key factors in shaping investor sentiment in the months ahead.

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